Escalating Russian Military Losses Amid Intensified Peace Talks in Ukraine

Wed Dec 31 2025 08:41:22 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

As U.S. efforts to negotiate peace gain traction, the casualties for Russian forces in Ukraine surge to alarming levels, with new reports indicating significant increases in soldier fatalities.

Recent analysis reveals a dramatic rise in Russian military losses in Ukraine, with confirmed deaths increasing by 40% over the past year as diplomatic efforts for peace accelerate. Nearly 160,000 Russian soldiers are documented as killed, though true numbers may be significantly higher. This year's spike in fatalities corresponds with political maneuvers aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict.

Over the past 10 months, Russian losses in the war with Ukraine have been growing faster than any time since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, BBC analysis suggests.

As peace efforts intensified in 2025 under pressure from US President Donald Trump's administration, 40% more obituaries of soldiers were published in Russian sources compared with the previous year.

Overall, the BBC has confirmed the names of almost 160,000 people killed fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine.

BBC News Russian has been counting Russian war losses together with independent outlet Mediazona and a group of volunteers since February 2022. We keep a list of named individuals whose deaths we were able to confirm using official reports, newspapers, social media, and new memorials and graves.

The real death toll is believed to be much higher, and military experts consulted suggest our analysis might represent 45-65% of the total. That would put the number of Russian deaths at between 243,000 and 352,000.

The number of obituaries for any given period is a preliminary estimate of the confirmed losses, indicating how the intensity of fighting is changing over time.

2025 started with a relatively low number of published obituaries in January, then surged in February when Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed terminating the war.

Another spike in August coincided with the two leaders meeting in Alaska, marking a significant diplomatic moment for Putin. In October and November, the release of a 28-point peace proposal from the US saw obituary numbers average 322 per day—double the rate in 2024.

The Kremlin appears to link territorial gains to leverage negotiations, as underscored by statements from Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov about “recent successes.”

Murat Mukashev, an anti-Kremlin activist, was among those who saw opportunity in a potential peace deal, ultimately costing him his life.

Mukashev, condemned Putin's policies but was eventually persuaded to join the military while imprisoned. In June 2025, he lost his life fighting in Ukraine.

This trend indicates a substantial number of the current Russian military effort is made up of so-called 'volunteers', who have increasingly become the majority of casualties.

Under pressure, local governments in Russia have intensified recruitment efforts, leading to over 336,000 enlistments this year alone. Despite high casualty rates, Russian forces continue to recruit more than they are losing, presenting a complex and grim picture of the ongoing conflict.

The toll on both sides remains staggering, with estimates of Ukrainian losses also climbing significantly. Negotiations continue amid this backdrop of heightened military casualties.