US President Donald Trump has set deadlines, made demands and issued threats over the course of the five-week joint US-Israeli war against Iran. But seldom have they been this explicit.
The new round of strikes against Iran will be devastating. They will begin at 20:00 Washington DC time on Tuesday (00:00 GMT on Wednesday). Within four hours, every bridge and power plant in the nation will be decimated.
Very little is off-limits, Trump said on Monday.
To avoid this fate, according to the president, Iran has to make a deal that's acceptable to me. A component of the agreement should include free traffic of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
As the final hours tick down, there has been little indication that Iran is ready to agree to Trump's ultimatum. They've rejected a temporary ceasefire and issued their own list of demands, which a US official described as maximalist.
This places the US president in a delicate position. If there is no agreement, Trump could extend his deadline – for the fourth time in the past three weeks.
But backing away after such detailed threats, punctuated with expletives and dire warnings, could undercut his credibility as the war grinds on.
It's possible Iran, and the rest of the world, could conclude that despite America's military might and tactical skill, it is not negotiating from a clear position of strength.
We won, Trump insisted during a news conference on Monday afternoon. They are militarily defeated. The only thing they have is the psychology of: 'Oh, we're going to drop a couple of mines in the water'.
That psychology – the ability to deter oil tankers from moving through the Strait of Hormuz with drones, missiles and mines – may be a more potent Iranian asset than the US has been willing to acknowledge.
Even if that tragedy had been averted, the triumphant rescue underlined the risk US forces still face in Iran. And the president may be learning that US military power has its limits.
Trump said that the Iranian people were willing to endure the ongoing US military campaign – and, in fact, welcomed the bombs falling on their cities – but he acknowledged that anything the US destroys now would eventually have to be rebuilt, and that the US might ultimately contribute to that rebuilding effort.
It's not exactly the stone age that he has warned Iran would be reduced to, but an ensuing humanitarian crisis could be devastating.
Even in this late hour, however, Trump continues to hold out hope of a breakthrough. We have an active, willing participant on the other side, he said. They would like to be able to make a deal. I can't say any more than that.
With the stakes as high as they are, the president's opacity is notable. He has a plan – every single thing has been thought out by all of us, he said – but he won't divulge it.
