Ethiopia’s general election on 1 June returned Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to power with an overwhelming parliamentary majority. The Prosperity Party secured 438 of the 501 seats announced, allowing Abiy to be sworn in for a second term at the start of October.
Abiy, who captured the Nobel Peace Prize a year after taking office, had been hailed for ending decades of tension with Eritrea. Yet the poll proved controversial – 143 voting stations in the country’s two most populous regions opened late or remained closed because of armed confrontations, and the north‑western Tigray region was excluded entirely.
Insurgencies in Amhara’s Fano militia and the banned Oromo Liberation Army have erupted again, and the TPLF’s recent statements sign‑post a potential new round of war. The United Nations and the European Union have warned that a resurgence could destabilise the Horn of Africa, with spill‑over into Sudan, Ethiopia’s new neighbour with ongoing civil conflict.
For a planet already battling climate change, political violence poses a threat to the country’s fragile ecosystems. Ethiopia has made significant strides in reforestation and reducing carbon emissions, but war uproots livelihoods, decimates forests and floods flood‑prone areas. Displaced populations increase pressure on land, exacerbating soil erosion, deforestation and water scarcity – all critical hindrances to climate resilience.
International analysts note that Abiy’s consolidation of power may either prevent a decisive crackdown on militant groups or, conversely, undermine the peace agreement. Rather than resolving Tigrayan grievances, he has been perceived by some as leaning towards punitive measures, raising the risk of renewed hostilities.
The outcome underscores the delicate balance between political stability and sustainable environmental progress. If Ethiopia’s next months see another flare‑up, the region could lose its hard‑won climate gains, jeopardising food supply chains that many communities have built upon. A unified, peace‑building approach is essential to ensure that economic and environmental initiatives can take root without being consumed by conflict.
