Once again the boom of artillery, rockets, and air strikes sounds along the Thai-Cambodian border.
Villages in a corridor stretching for hundreds of kilometres have been evacuated for a second time in five months. Families and their pets sit on mats in temporary shelters, wondering when they can go home, and when they might be forced to flee yet again.
Why has this happened so soon after the ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump in July?
It was ignited by a seemingly minor incident on Sunday when a Thai engineering team working on an access road in the disputed area was, according to the Thai army, fired on by Cambodian troops. Two Thai soldiers were injured, neither seriously.
In the past, this might have been settled by some fleet-footed diplomacy. But there has been little of that this year. Instead, a yawning gulf of mistrust lies between these two neighbours, one even Trump's deal-making prowess has failed to bridge.
Despite his claim to have struck a historic peace deal, the ceasefire he forced on the two countries in July was always tenuous. Thailand, in particular, was very uneasy about internationalizing the border conflict and only agreed to the ceasefire because Trump held a tariff gun to its head; at the time both Thailand and Cambodia were just days away from a deadline to negotiate significantly lower tariff rates on their vital exports to the US.
Cambodia, by contrast, is only too happy to welcome outside intervention. As the smaller country, it feels at a disadvantage in bilateral negotiations with Thailand.
But on the border, its troops have continued to engage in confrontations with the Thai army, and in a move guaranteed to anger the Thai public, lay new land-mines which have so far caused seven Thai soldiers to lose limbs. Thailand has presented compelling evidence of this, accused Cambodia of bad faith, and refused to release 18 of its soldiers captured in July.
Since July, any restraint there was on the Thai armed forces has gone. The current Prime Minister Anutin Charvirakul heads a minority coalition, and is beset with other challenges. He has given the military carte blanche to manage the border conflict as it sees fit.
Both sides have been maneuvering around hill-top positions all year, trying to reinforce road access and fortifications. The Thais believed they were on track to push the Cambodians back when forced to stop in July. The military says it wants to finish the job now.
The motivations at work in the Cambodian leadership are much harder to divine. Former Prime Minister Hun Sen controls his son, the current PM Hun Manet, and has painted Cambodia as the victim in need of international support. The details of his intervention in this border dispute have been pivotal this year, particularly his decision to leak a confidential phone conversation which has incited outrage in Thailand.
Can President Trump bang heads together again as he did in July? Perhaps. But if all he achieves is another ceasefire, it will only be a matter of time before fighting breaks out again, as Thailand has signaled now is not the time for diplomacy.
