Caution Reigns in Strait of Hormuz Amid Iranian Warnings

Thu Apr 09 2026 10:09:37 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)

Despite a recent ceasefire agreement, ships are hesitant to transit the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz due to concerns over Iranian warnings and the economic implications of disrupted shipping routes.

The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping channel for oil and gas, remains under cautious surveillance as Iran threatens military action against vessels entering without permission. Though a ceasefire aims to ensure safe passage, analysts predict limited vessel movements amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, highlighting global economic vulnerabilities tied to this narrow maritime route.

The Strait of Hormuz has become a focal point of the US-Israel war with Iran after Tehran effectively choked off one of the world's most important shipping lanes, carrying about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas.

A two-week ceasefire was agreed on Tuesday evening on the condition that safe passage through the strait is guaranteed - but BBC Verify analysis shows only a few vessels have since crossed.

The disruption, over the past five weeks, has sent shock waves across the world economy, pushing up energy prices and exposing just how reliant international supply chains are on the strait, which is only about 33km (21 miles) wide at its narrowest point.

As well as energy, the Gulf is also vital for transporting chemicals needed to process products like microchips, pharmaceuticals and fertiliser.

While the price of oil has fallen on news of the ceasefire, shipping analysts are warning to expect only a trickle of crossings for now.

Most shipping lines would want to get details and reassurances on what it actually takes to transit and those details are not available, Lars Jensen from Vespucci Maritime told the BBC.

Since the ceasefire came into force, shipping brokerage firm SSY has confirmed to BBC Verify that ships in the Gulf have received a warning from Iran's navy that any vessels seeking to cross without permission will be targeted and destroyed.

By 14:00 BST on 8 April just three tankers - NJ Earth, Daytona Beach and Hai Long 1 - had passed through the strait since the ceasefire was announced late on Tuesday night.

That compares to 138 ships that passed through the strait each day, on average, before the conflict started on 28 February.

It is still too soon to tell whether this reflects a broader ceasefire-driven reopening or a previously approved exception, says Ana Subasic from the shipping analyst company Kpler.

If crossings do resume, Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd's List, expects that stranded tankers fully loaded with cargo will be prioritized for passage.

As concerns regarding toll payments and the potential for miscommunication with Iran add to the uncertainty, many ship owners remain tentative about re-entering these waters.

Despite the lack of crossings so far, markets responded positively in the hours following the ceasefire, with benchmark Brent crude falling significantly.