Throughout US President Donald Trump's second term in office, traders have been betting millions of dollars just before he makes major announcements.
The BBC has examined trade volume data on several financial markets and matched them to some of the president's most significant market-moving statements. It found a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public.
Some analysts say it bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading, whereby bets are made by people based on information that is not available to the general public. Others say the picture is more complicated and that some traders have become more adept at anticipating the president's interventions.
Here are five of the most significant examples.
9 March 2026: 'The war is very complete, pretty much'
Some of the biggest movements have been in oil trades on the futures market. Nine days into the US-Israel war with Iran, Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that the conflict was very complete, pretty much.
Market watchers noted a major spike in oil trades moments before that interview. They highlighted that oil bets surged at 18:29 GMT, just before the report broke at 19:16 GMT, leading to a dramatic plunge in prices following Trump’s announcement.
The first public knowledge of the interview came through social media, and those who positioned themselves correctly made significant profits from the trades made just minutes prior.
23 March 2026: 'Complete and total resolution to hostilities'
On March 23, Trump announced a complete and total resolution to the hostilities with Iran via social media, following his earlier threats against Iranian power infrastructure. This unanticipated announcement led to another spike in oil trades.
Before the announcement, traders made a notable gamble on the price dropping sharply after Trump's optimistic news broke. Analysts noted unprecedented trading volumes just prior to his posts, again raising questions about the legality and ethics behind such activities.
9 April 2025: 'Liberation Day' pause
In April 2025, Trump declared a sweeping set of tariffs on multiple countries, leading to a drastic downturn in stock markets. A week later, he announced a significant pause on most tariffs on all countries but China, which led to a historic market surge, prompting suspicion as unusual trading activity occurred just before the announcement.
Movements were seen in trader positions anticipating the tariffs' suspension, which netted them huge profits when the market responded positively to Trump's revised stance.
3 Jan 2026: Maduro seized
When Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was ousted just days into 2026, a user on Polymarket won a substantial wager, demonstrating the increasing intersection between international politics and market betting. The account in question bet on Maduro's ouster days prior, garnering massive returns.
28 Feb 2026: Strikes on Iran
Finally, just before a series of US airstrikes on Iranian targets confirmed by Trump, several accounts organized on prediction markets placed bets which yielded significant profits once the actions were validated, implying access to information ahead of the broader market.
While the SEC and other regulatory bodies have been scrutinized for their response to these activities, the shadow of substantial insider trading allegations looms over Trump's presidency, prompting calls for a thorough investigation.
