A flurry of high-profile air travel incidents has ignited debates about aviation safety, leading to widespread social media discussions suggesting that planes are crashing more often. The U.S. Transport Secretary, Sean Duffy, attempted to quell these fears, labeling the spate of accidents “very unique.” His comments followed several serious occurrences, including a tragic mid-air collision in Washington DC that claimed 67 lives.
The surge of alarming footage online, such as an airplane flipping post-landing in poor weather in Toronto, has contributed to rising anxiety about flight safety. Even though polling on this topic is sparse, an Associated Press survey suggests that these striking visuals may have shaken some Americans' confidence in flying.
However, an analysis by BBC Verify of global and U.S. data reveals a different story: air accidents have generally declined over the last two decades. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) data shows a consistent drop in U.S. air accidents from 2005 to 2024, despite an increase in flight numbers. For instance, reported incidents in January 2025 (52 accidents) decreased compared to the same month in previous years—58 in January 2024 and 70 in January 2023.
Internationally, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) also confirms a downward trend, observing fewer accidents relative to plane departures from 2005 to 2023. The ICAO defines an "aircraft accident" broadly, encompassing incidents where planes are damaged or go missing, thus underlining the importance of data context.
In terms of fatalities, while there have been spikes connected to major disasters—most notably in 2014 with the infamous Malaysian Airlines incidents—data shows that fatalities from air accidents have generally decreased over time. Famous statistician Prof. Sir David Spiegelhalter emphasized the volatility of accident counts, observing that random events in aviation do not occur in a uniform pattern, thus making peaks in data misleading.
Some experts point out that despite recent setbacks, these events do not suggest a systemic decline in aviation safety. Ismo Aaltonen, a former Finnish air disaster investigator, remarked on the randomness of the incidents, urging the public not to draw parallels between the disparate cases. He acknowledged several recent incidents, including a plane shot down by a missile, highlighting their unpredictability.
The emergence of social media has only intensified public awareness about aviation accidents. Videos and memes circulating on platforms like TikTok can distort perceptions of air travel safety. Marco Chan, a former pilot, attributes this increased visibility of aviation incidents to digital media's reach, which can exaggerate perceptions of risk.
Despite these perceptions, aviation experts stress the rigorous safety standards that govern the industry. Every major incident undergoes thorough investigations, and findings are used to refine pilot training and operational protocols. Modern simulators and regulatory bodies impose stringent consequences for safety violations, ensuring consistent adherence to safety measures.
Notably, air travel remains markedly safer than other forms of transport. In the U.S., over 95% of transport-related deaths in 2022 happened on the road, while fewer than 1% resulted from aviation. When examining distances traveled, the death rate for aviation (0.001 per 100,000 miles) pales in comparison to the rate for passenger vehicles (0.54 per 100,000 miles).
In closing, while the recent series of aviation incidents has captured public attention, statistical evidence paints a picture of declining air accident rates and continues to uphold air travel as the safest mode of transport available.
