India's monsoon has turned wild. Half of the country is reeling under floods after extraordinary downpours, with Punjab facing its worst deluge since 1988.
Some parts of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan saw rains more than 1,000% above normal in just 24 hours, as reported by the Indian Meteorology Department (IMD). Between 28 August and 3 September, rainfall in northwest India was 180% above average, and in the south, it reached 73%. More heavy rain is forecasted for large parts of the country this week.
The rains have caused widespread havoc, resulting in landslides and the inundation of towns, leading to hundreds of fatalities. But how did the rainfall become so intense?
Changing Monsoon
The climate crisis is altering the behavior of the monsoon system. Scientists indicate that higher moisture levels in the air, driven by warmer climates from the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea, are one of the main changes. In the past, monsoon rains were steady and spread evenly over four months. However, they are now often concentrated in localized downpours after long dry spells.
This trend is particularly evident in mountainous regions, where moisture-laden clouds release huge amounts of rain rapidly—a phenomenon known as cloudburst. Such occurrences have led to severe weather situations in the Himalayan states during the first week of August.
Westerly Disturbances
A major factor contributing to August's prolonged heavy rainfall in states like Punjab and Haryana was the interaction between the existing monsoon system and westerly disturbances, which carry cold air from the Mediterranean region into the Indian subcontinent. When these disturbances meet the humid air from the ongoing monsoon, intense weather activity is triggered.
Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the University of Reading, describes this interaction as a rare 'atmospheric tango.' The IMD has confirmed this unusual weather pattern, noting that such interactions during the peak monsoon season are typically uncommon.
Unstable Mountains
Extreme rainfall has also led to flash floods in northern India and Pakistan, even in the absence of significant rain events. The rapid melting of glaciers is one of the factors behind these floods, as is the destabilization of mountains due to global warming. As glaciers melt, they no longer provide stability to mountain slopes, contributing to landslides and flood risks.
Man-made Disasters
Human activities complicate these natural developments. Settlements have expanded into floodplains and river pathways, obstructing natural water flows. Infrastructure like highways and hydropower projects further weaken these regions. Despite warnings regarding above-normal monsoon rainfall, many river embankments and drainage systems remain unrepaired, and urban waterways are clogged with plastic waste, exacerbating flooding risks.
Addressing these issues is imperative to mitigate the impacts of rainfall and flooding in the future.