Google’s Earthquake Alert System Fails to Warn Millions in Turkey

Google has acknowledged that its earthquake alert system failed to deliver crucial warnings during the devastating 2023 earthquakes in Turkey, endangering the lives of millions. Despite having an early warning system in place, the tech giant underestimated the earthquake's strength, resulting in insufficient alerts being sent to the population at risk.

In the wake of the 2023 earthquakes in Turkey that resulted in over 55,000 fatalities, Google has admitted that its earthquake early warning system failed to provide adequate alerts to the millions at risk. The Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA) system, designed to serve as an early warning network, miscalculated the severity of the first quake, a monumental 7.8 magnitude event that struck the region on February 6. While nearly ten million people lived within 98 miles of the epicenter, only a mere 469 "Take Action" warnings—Google's most critical alert—were sent out, providing users with only seconds to seek safety.

Initially, Google had touted the system's performance, claiming it had functioned effectively after a separate investigation. When questioned about its functionality, the company clarified that half a million users received lower-level warnings, which are intended only for light shaking and do not offer the same urgency as the more severe alerts.

The AEA operates using data from Android devices—dominant in Turkey—allowing it to detect ground motion based on widespread mobile sensor data. The most severe notifications, tagged as "Take Action" alerts, are designed to override do-not-disturb settings and notify users of life-threatening shaking. The devastating nature of the Turkish earthquakes, particularly with the first event occurring at 04:17 AM when many were asleep, underscores the imperative need for these alerts.

Post-disaster investigations revealed that Google’s detection algorithms significantly underestimated the shaking intensity. Following the first major quake, the system approximated shaking levels at merely 4.5 to 4.9, whereas it was actually rated at 7.8. The second quake prompted slightly more response, yet still fell short, sending about 8,158 Take Action alerts. Subsequent adjustments to the algorithms allowed for simulations that projected over ten million alerts for similar situations in the future.

Experts express concern over the system’s transparency and the reliance on technology that lacks full testing. Elizabeth Reddy from the Colorado School of Mines voiced frustration at the delay in exposing the system's shortcomings, especially given the devastating consequences of the earthquakes.

While Google maintains that its system is meant to work alongside national emergency management tools rather than replace them, many scientists worry about misplaced trust in these technological systems. The AEA has issued alerts in nearly 100 countries, but how effectively it functions, especially during critical moments, remains a pressing concern for both scientists and citizens.