In brief
With a mix of human-induced climate change and natural phenomena like El Niño, 2024 could break temperature records and raise urgent concerns ahead of COP29.
In a disturbing forecast, the European climate service has announced that 2024 is on course to become the hottest year recorded globally, characterized by extreme heatwaves and destructive storms. Projections indicate that global average temperatures are likely to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a significant threshold that, if crossed, could have dire implications for climate policy and worldwide ecosystem stability. According to experts, the dramatic rise in temperatures is primarily attributed to human-driven climate change, with natural factors like the El Niño weather pattern contributing to some degree. "This record serves as a call to action for governments attending COP29 in Azerbaijan next week," warns Liz Bentley, CEO of the Royal Meteorological Society. Global temperatures have maintained unusually high levels throughout the first ten months of 2024, making it highly improbable for subsequent months to see a drastic drop preventing a new record. Model estimates suggest that the final temperature for 2024 could settle at around 1.55°C above pre-industrial benchmarks, a concerning comparison to the previous record of 1.48°C set just last year. Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus, highlights this projection as a critical turning point in climate history, stating that 2024 would be the first calendar year to exceed the 1.5°C mark. This threshold is of symbolic importance, as nearly 200 nations committed to limiting long-term temperature increases to this level under the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015. Crossing the 1.5°C limit doesn't equate to an outright failure of the Paris Agreement, as it targets average temperatures over an extended period of approximately 20 years, aiming to account for natural variations. However, each annual breach incrementally edges the planet closer to exceeding the 1.5°C average for the long term. Last month, the United Nations cautioned that under current policies, global temperatures could rise by over 3°C during this century. The early months of 2024 have been significantly impacted by the natural El Niño phenomenon—characterized by warmer surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific, which releases excess heat into the atmosphere. While this phase began in mid-2023 and is projected to conclude by April 2024, the world has not yet seen a drop in extreme temperatures. Daily records for global average temperatures have been shattered continuously, according to Copernicus data. Experts anticipate that the subsequent La Niña phase may lead to a temporary cooling effect in 2025, but the exact timeline and implications remain uncertain. Ed Hawkins, a climate science professor at the University of Reading, notes the importance of observing temperature trends in the coming years. Nevertheless, as greenhouse gas emissions continually rise, scientists caution that the world should expect more record-breaking heat events. Prof. Hawkins emphasizes that "stabilizing global temperatures through achieving net-zero emissions is the only viable approach to mitigate the escalating risks of climate disasters," underscoring the pressing need for immediate action in the fight against climate change.
