Ukraine has dramatically increased the number of attacks launched against Russian oil refineries in recent months, sparking fuel shortages and price rises in some parts of the country, BBC Verify and BBC Russian have reported.
Drone strikes on refineries - some deep inside Russia - soared in August and remained high in September, as analyzed through Russian media reports and verified footage.
Out of Russia's 38 large refineries, 21 have been hit since January, with successful strikes already 48% higher than the entirety of 2024. Ordinary Russians are starting to feel the impact, indicated by verified videos showing long queues at petrol stations, with some garages opting to suspend operations rather than work at a loss, as one manager relayed to the media.
Ukraine's security service, the SBU, has not responded to comment requests, but President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that damaging Russia's oil industry is pivotal for pressuring Russia to negotiate peace. He mentioned, 'The most effective sanctions... are the fires at Russia's oil refineries.'
The analysis highlights that reported attacks reached a record high in August, targeting 14 refineries, followed by eight in September.
Some strikes have targeted facilities as far as 1,100km from the Ukrainian border. A recent instance involved the SBU hitting the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat oil refinery in the Bashkortostan region.
Kyiv's strategy appears focused on impacting both civilian supply and military logistics capabilities, with refineries crucial to troop supplies also coming under fire.
Experts suggest that the surge in attacks reflects an intentional shift in strategy by Ukraine's military and security services to undermine the Russian oil sector systematically.
There are indications that the refinery strikes are affecting civilian life in Russia. Reports confirm long queues at petrol stations and urgent adjustments from officials in occupied Crimea where gasoline rationing has been implemented. In Siberia, independent petrol stations are closing due to fuel supply disruptions akin to economic crises observed in early post-Soviet Russia.
Retail petrol prices have surged, attributed partially to the rising operational costs triggered by the drone strikes. The situation remains complicated, as while direct oil export impacts appear minimal, the strikes inhibit Russia's capacity to sustain its military efforts.
