Cameroon’s Presidential Race: Biya’s Eighth Term Looms Amid Opposition Turmoil

The exclusion of opposition leader Maurice Kamto from Cameroon's presidential election paves the way for 92-year-old Paul Biya to potentially secure an eighth consecutive term. As the electoral process unfolds amid factionalism, the effectiveness of the opposition candidates remains uncertain.

Cameroon's upcoming presidential election has been marred by controversy as the constitutional council upheld a decision to exclude opposition leader Maurice Kamto from participating in the October 12 polls. This development clears the path for 92-year-old President Paul Biya, allowing him to vie for an unprecedented eighth term in an oil-rich nation where he's held power since 1982. Should he win, Biya could remain president until nearly 100 years old.

Kamto’s disqualification stems from an internal conflict within the Manidem party, which has endorsed another candidate, sparking outrage among his supporters. His legal representatives emphasized that the rejection seemed politically motivated rather than based solely on legal grounds.

Among the 83 candidates seeking approval, only 12 succeeded. The grounds for disqualification from Elections Cameroon included incomplete applications and multiple candidacies from single parties. The six leading candidates, aside from Biya, are as follows:

1. **Paul Biya:** The incumbent, maintaining a firm grip on power for over 43 years, presents himself as a champion for women and youth, despite historical allegations of election fraud.

2. **Bello Bouba Maigari:** At 78, Maigari has a long political history, previously serving as prime minister. His recent independent candidacy marks a split from Biya’s coalition.

3. **Issa Tchiroma Bakary:** Once an ally of Biya, Tchiroma, 75, now seeks to challenge the president, aiming to revitalize a "suffocating" governance system.

4. **Cabral Libii:** The young politician attempts a second run after performing admirably in the last election, where he captured 6% of the vote. His candidacy raises hopes for substantial reforms.

5. **Akere Muna:** A previous contender who backed Kamto last election, Muna, 72, promises to prioritize anti-corruption efforts to restore Cameroon's international standing.

6. **Joshua Osih:** Leading the historic Social Democratic Front party, Osih aims to move beyond a lackluster previous election to champion reforms that resonate with voters.

Political analysts suggest that while Biya’s historical dominance prevents meaningful opposition success, the emergence of figures like Maigari and Tchiroma may not significantly alter the status quo.

With Kamto sidelined, Cabral Libii appears poised as Biya’s most formidable challenger, benefiting from his party's recent successes. However, some experts argue that Akere Muna boasts a clearer vision and greater diplomatic experience, making him a strong rival.

The opposition has traditionally struggled to unify, undermining their chances against Biya. Calls for collaboration have surfaced, emphasizing the necessity of a consensus candidate who can effectively mobilize support across party lines.

Past elections demonstrate the potential impact of unity among opposition groups, as seen in 1992 when a coalition nearly unseated Biya. In today’s fractured political climate, experts warn that failure to unite could lead to an easy victory for the incumbent.

As the date approaches, the implications of this election extend beyond immediate politics and into the future trajectory of Cameroon, highlighting the pressing need for clear leadership and strategic collaboration among opposition factions.