Nepal's Political Turmoil: Implications for India and the Region

Tue Sep 30 2025 03:36:43 GMT+0300 (Eastern European Summer Time)

The recent violent uprising in Nepal has led to significant political changes, impacting India's relations in South Asia amid growing concerns over stability and regional influence.

Following the resignation of Nepal's Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli amid violent protests, India is closely monitoring the situation due to deep historical ties and strategic interests. The unrest reflects broader regional instability as Nepal joins Bangladesh and Sri Lanka in recent political upheaval. Experts warn of the implications for India’s diplomatic efforts in a volatile South Asian landscape.

Nepal has become the third country in India's immediate neighbourhood to see a violent uprising topple its government in recent years. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resigned after more than 20 people died in clashes with police during anti-government demonstrations triggered by a social media ban.

A nationwide curfew is in place and the army is attempting to bring the situation under control after protesters stormed parliament and set fire to the homes of several politicians. For many, the scenes in Kathmandu were reminiscent of the turmoil that gripped Bangladesh last year, and Sri Lanka in 2022.

Though Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also India's close neighbours in South Asia, Delhi's relationship with Kathmandu is special because of historic people-to-people, economic and strategic ties. Nepal shares a largely open border of more than 1,750km (466 miles) with five Indian states: Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, Bihar and West Bengal.

Delhi is keenly watching developments across the border, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi swiftly reacting to the unfolding events. The violence in Nepal is heart-rending. I am anguished that many young people have lost their lives, Modi wrote in a post on X on Tuesday.

Stressing that 'stability, peace and prosperity of Nepal are of utmost importance', he appealed to 'all my brothers and sisters in Nepal to support peace'. Modi also chaired an emergency security meeting with his cabinet colleagues to discuss the situation.

Much like it was caught off-guard by the uprising in Sri Lanka in 2022 that forced then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country, analysts say India was taken by surprise by the developments in Nepal, with Oli resigning just a week ahead of a planned visit to Delhi.

Any instability in the country is a cause of concern for India because of Nepal's strategic location. The Western Theatre Command of China sits right across Nepal. The route to the Indo-Gangetic plains comes straight through Nepal, thus heightening India's sensitivity to security dynamics in the region.

The unrest also has implications for the large Nepalese diaspora in India. An estimated 3.5 million Nepalis work or live in India, with strong family ties across the border. The relationships are further strengthened by an open border policy, allowing travel and work without a visa under a 1950 treaty.

Experts suggest that increasing fellowships for Nepalese students and more job opportunities could help mitigate anger towards the Indian government among protestors. With the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) remaining dormant, addressing the political changes and instability in its neighbourhood presents a significant challenge for India.

The massive implications of this turmoil could redefine India’s regional power dynamics at a time when relationships with Pakistan are strained, Bangladesh remains tense, and Myanmar is immersed in civil unrest. Experts warn that India must focus on building a more secure and stable neighbourhood to achieve its great power ambitions.