Rise in Russian Attacks on Ukraine Amid Trump’s Peace Initiatives

A BBC Verify analysis reveals that Russian aerial assaults on Ukraine have more than doubled since President Trump's inauguration, coinciding with his efforts to broker peace. The rising level of attacks has raised concerns over Ukraine's defense capabilities and escalated discussions about military support from the U.S.

Despite President Trump's professed intentions to curtail the conflict in Ukraine, a recent analysis by BBC Verify indicates that Russian aerial assaults have dramatically intensified following his inauguration in January. The findings show that the number of missiles and drones launched by Russia has more than doubled compared to the final months of President Biden's term, raising alarms about Ukraine's ongoing vulnerability amidst escalating violence.

The increase in military aggression follows Trump's campaign promises to swiftly halt the fighting, with assertions that a leader respected by Russia could have prevented the war. However, criticisms have emerged regarding his administration's dealings, including temporary halts on military supplies to Ukraine, which some argue have inadvertently enabled Russia's intensified attacks. Notably, Ukrainian military intelligence noted a 66% increase in Russian ballistic missile production over the past year.

Data collected indicates that Russia fired approximately 27,158 munitions between January 20 and July 19, compared to 11,614 munitions during Joe Biden's final six months in office. This spike occurred despite hopes that Trump's warm overtures might lead to diplomatic resolutions, as attacks initially saw a drop during the early weeks of his presidency.

However, by February, following discussions between U.S. diplomats and Russia, hostilities again escalated. The peak of these assaults occurred on July 9, when a staggering 748 drones and missiles were launched, resulting in casualties. Although Trump has expressed dismay at these developments, critics argue that his policies have emboldened Putin, leading to increased hostility.

The ongoing attacks have revived calls within Congress for the U.S. to enhance military support for Ukraine, including providing advanced Patriot anti-aircraft systems. Trump has reversed previous military supply pauses and committed to arming NATO allies, who may assist in supplying Kyiv. Analysts warn that the increasing rate of Russian drone and missile production poses significant threats to Ukrainian defenses, which are already burdened by a reduced supply of U.S. interceptor missiles.

Senator Chris Coons has emphasized the urgency for a robust and consistent U.S. stance against Russian aggression to prevent further deterioration of the situation. Meanwhile, the war's toll is palpable in Ukraine, where daily life is impacted by ongoing assaults and public morale is suffering under the weight of continuous violence. Ukrainian citizens express fatigue from the conflict, aware of the stakes but wearied by the relentless bombardment.