Thomasina Clarke has watched school after school close in her once thriving St. Louis neighborhood, which was hit by a tornado this spring and whose population has plummeted in recent decades.
“It’s like a hole in the community,” Clarke said. She fears a new round of closure discussions could strip the historically Black community of a storm-damaged high school, whose alumni include Tina Turner and Chuck Berry.
St. Louis Public Schools is among the districts nationwide weighing how many urban schools to keep open due to shrinking budgets, the falling birthrate and a growing school choice movement. A district-commissioned report released this year found that the school system has more than twice the schools it needs.
Such decisions are gut-wrenching. It’s a financial strain to operate half-empty schools, but research shows kids often fare badly after closures.
Elsewhere, Philadelphia, Boston, Houston and Norfolk, Virginia, are considering shuttering schools, while a public outcry over potential closures has stopped them — for now — in Seattle and San Francisco.
How Many Public Schools Will Close?
From 2019 to 2023, enrollment declined by 20% or more at nearly 1 in 12 public schools — roughly 5,100 — according to a report published last year by the Thomas B. Fordham Institute. Many were chronically low-performing schools in high poverty neighborhoods, the report found.
Public school enrollment is projected to tumble 5.5% between 2022 and 2031, largely due to changing demographics, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. Other factors include the shift by some students to private education or homeschooling and some immigrant families’ decisions to leave the country.
Federal funds allowed many schools to stay open during the COVID-19 pandemic, but now the relief money is gone, and those under-populated schools are a problem, said Aaron Garth Smith, director of education reform at the Reason Foundation.
“The takeaway is pretty clear,” Smith said: Public school enrollment is declining. “It’s going to continue to fall for years to come. And so generally, state and local policymakers have to adapt to this new reality.”
Chicago Closures Led to Student Struggles
In a similar vein, Chicago shuttered around 50 schools in 2013 — the largest school closure in U.S. history. Afterward, fighting and bullying increased as displaced students settled into new schools, according to a study by the UChicago Consortium on School Research.
Test scores dipped in the schools involved in closures, with disruptive impacts that could last for years.
Under pressure from the Chicago’s powerful teachers union, the city has issued a moratorium on closures through 2027, though around a third of classroom seats remain empty.
Possible Closures Rattle a Community
St. Louis Public Schools’ student population plummeted from 115,543 in 1967 to 18,122 last year, reflecting an exodus of families to the suburbs. That number could drop further as residents leave their tornado-damaged homes.
Schools like Sumner and an elementary school are among those that didn’t open this fall because of tornado damage. A school board meeting revealed divisions over how to handle school closures, with some arguing that funds could be better allocated.
Several shuttered schools already dot the Ville neighborhood. In June, district officials reaffirmed their commitment to keep Sumner open, but newer communications have raised concerns about its future.
“It just adds more trauma to those who are suffering,” lamented Ray Cummings, president of the American Federation of Teachers St. Louis Local 420. “Those neighborhoods need hope.”
Despite the grim circumstances, there are stories of resilience. Dakota Scott, for instance, turned her academic life around at Sumner and is now a freshman at the University of Missouri.
“From being a kid who was skipping class, I was a kid who was literally on time,” she said, showing the transformative power of community support and strong educational environments.
