Trump's Return to Power Poses Challenges for Climate Action

Experts warn that Trump's presidency could obstruct emission reductions, complicating UN climate negotiations and funding efforts for developing nations.

As Donald Trump prepares to reclaim the presidency, repercussions for climate action loom large, with analysts indicating his leadership may reverse significant strides towards combating climate change. As world leaders convene for COP29, his victory is perceived as a major barrier to progress in both emission reductions and financial support for climate-vulnerable nations.

Known for his skepticism towards climate science and his assertion that green energy initiatives are "scams," Trump's administration is likely to prioritize fossil fuel expansion over renewable energy. While support for wind and solar energy remains robust among the U.S. populace, experts suggest Trump's anticipated focus on oil and gas could still face limitations in effectiveness. Recent devastating hurricanes in the U.S. have drawn clear links to climate change, raising awareness and urgency around climate discussions.

Unlike the previous term when Trump announced withdrawal from the Paris Agreement—a fundamental pact uniting nations to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions—the upcoming withdrawal may occur much more swiftly. With a window of just one year to exit the agreement, Trump has the potential to redefine U.S. climate policy with unchecked authority, leaving him unbound by global regulations and agreements.

"The U.S. at this COP is not just a lame duck, it's a dead duck," stated Professor Richard Klein from the Stockholm Environment Institute, emphasizing the detrimental impact of Trump's presidency on international commitment to climate action. Without U.S. involvement, countries like China might also withdraw from their pledges, further hindering efforts to secure necessary funds for developing nations aiming for net-zero emissions.

Developing countries increasingly rely on external investment, with climate scientists projecting a need for billions to combat escalating temperatures and adapt to changing climates. The previous U.S. administration had sought additional contributions from major developing economies, such as China. However, Trump's forthcoming policies may derail any progress in securing such financial commitments.

While advocates argue that Trump’s administration could retreat from vital international climate accords, it remains unclear whether he will push back against the growing momentum for sustainable energy. Despite potential regulatory rollbacks, opposition—inside and outside of his party—could impact the push for cleaner energy futures. Biden's Investment Reduction Act, allocating a significant sum towards green initiatives, earned notable support in Republican districts, suggesting a complex landscape for future energy policies.

Industry leaders express concern as the stock value of turbine manufacturers dropped amid worries that Trump's presidency could halt U.S. offshore wind farm developments. However, there exists a belief that the transition towards greener alternatives is unlikely to stall completely, even in the face of Trump-induced challenges. As former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres noted, while his victory is seen as a substantial setback for global climate action, it is unlikely to impede the ongoing efforts to decarbonize and fulfill the commitments of the Paris Agreement.