Crisis Deepens in France: What Lies Ahead for President Macron?

After eight years in office, Emmanuel Macron's position as president is under increasing scrutiny as France's political crisis escalates. Once dubbing himself the 'maître des horloges' or 'master of the clocks,' Macron’s hold on power is faltering. For the third time in a year, a prime minister has resigned, with polls revealing nearly three-quarters of voters believing the president should resign as well.

Long-time ally Édouard Philippe, former prime minister from 2017-2020, has advised Macron to appoint a technocratic leader and seek early presidential elections to restore stability.

How did we get here?

The current turmoil was sparked by the resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, only 26 days into his term. Despite briefly agreeing to remain for an additional 48 hours, Lecornu's departure represents a significant blow to Macron’s administration. His resignation followed Macron’s impulsive decision to call a snap parliamentary election, leading to a hung parliament that deprived Macron's centrist coalition of its majority.

It's all about France's debt

A key challenge for Lecornu and his predecessors has been addressing France's staggering national debt, which topped €3,345 billion or nearly 114% of GDP as of early 2023. Attempts by previous prime ministers to impose austerity have sparked backlash and led to their quick ousting. Lecornu's cabinet was criticized almost immediately, culminating in his resignation just one day after its formation.

Who are the key figures in this crisis?

Calls for Macron to step down have come primarily from the hard right and radical left, including figures like Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The political landscape is increasingly fractious, with parties focused on the upcoming 2027 presidential election and positioning themselves for potential snap elections, which could favor Le Pen's National Rally.

What happens now?

With Lecornu engaged in discussions to form a stable government, the outlook is bleak. Potential outcomes range from a new government being formed, leading to the appointment of a new prime minister, to a complete parliamentary dissolution and fresh elections that could destabilize Macron’s presidency further.

Has Macron run out of road?

After another resignation of a prime minister, Macron now faces the hardest decisions of his presidency. There's a palpable sense that his time is running out. Despite his past successes, the failure to stabilize his administration casts doubt on his ability to govern effectively moving forward.